KenyaversusRwanda

5 Jul 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kenya won by 49 runs

Kenya20.0 overs182/6 Rwanda19.1 overs133/9 Sikh Union Club Ground, Nairobi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

91%Kenya9%Rwanda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Rwanda (1,530 vs 1,296 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 8 and Rwanda won 0
Kenya are playing at home in Kenya

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kenya started on 91%; Kenya batted first.

Kenya’s chance of winning (%) · Rwanda is the rest

Kenya's chances ranged from 86% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 14%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Z Bimenyimana to RN Patel, RN Patel out. Rwanda up from 9% to 14%.
7.6: Muhammad Nadir to RR Patel, RR Patel out. Rwanda up from 6% to 8%.
2nd inns 2.5: Vraj Patel to O Manishimwe, O Manishimwe out. Kenya up from 94% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kenya182/6 Rwanda133/9

Innings 2

Rwanda

133/919.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Rwanda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
D Ndikubwimanacaught and bowled · Rakep Patel 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Rakep Patel	26	25	4	0	104.00
O Manishimwecaught · Tanzeel Sheikh · Vraj Patel 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tanzeel Sheikh · b Vraj Patel	17	10	4	0	170.00
Hamza Khanstumped · Sukhdeep Singh · Vraj Patel 3 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sukhdeep Singh · b Vraj Patel	28	33	3	0	84.85
O Tuyisengecaught · GM Muthui · Rakep Patel 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · GM Muthui · b Rakep Patel	12	12	0	1	100.00
Yves Cyusacaught · Rakep Patel · Lucas Oluoch 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Rakep Patel · b Lucas Oluoch	24	17	1	2	141.18

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Vraj Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	39	2	9.75	2
GM Muthui0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	18	0	9.00	0
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	1	6.75	3
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	0	4.75	0
Rakep Patel1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	3	5.50	1
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.1	0	5	3	4.29	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	9	22/0
3	5	27/1
4	9	36/1
5	8	44/1
6	7	51/1
7	5	56/1
8	4	60/1
9	5	65/1
10	0	65/2
11	7	72/2
12	9	81/3
13	3	84/3
14	7	91/3
15	13	104/4
16	6	110/5
17	3	113/5
18	7	120/7
19	13	133/8
20	0	133/9

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