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Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
5 Jan 2025 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 36%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (New Zealand: 55% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry | 9 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 50.00 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Glenn Phillips · Nathan Smith 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Nathan Smith | 56 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 88.89 |
| Kusal Mendisbowled · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Duffy | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Kamindu Mendisrun out · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mitchell Santner | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Mitchell Hay · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Nathan Smith | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught · MG Bracewell · Mitchell Santner4 fours · 1 sixes |
|---|
| caught · MG Bracewell · b Mitchell Santner |
| 36 |
| 54 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 66.67 |
| Chamindu Wickramasinghecaught · Will Young · Matt Henry 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Matt Henry | 22 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 52.38 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry | 35 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 106.06 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingacaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandocaught · Mitchell Hay · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Jacob Duffy | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 1.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 43 | 2 | 5.38 | 1 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 50 | 0 | 5.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 3.86 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Pathum Nissanka, 4.3) · 2-18 (Kusal Mendis, 6.0) · 3-23 (Kamindu Mendis, 9.0) · 4-23 (Charith Asalanka, 9.5) · 5-110 (Janith Liyanage, 25.3) · 6-110 (Avishka Fernando, 26.4) · 7-158 (Chamindu Wickramasinghe, 37.3) · 8-175 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 39.3) · 9-176 (Eshan Malinga, 41.3) · 10-178 (Asitha Fernando, 43.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 19/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 21/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 23/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 23/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 29/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 32/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 33/4 |
| 14 | 12 | 45/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 51/4 |
| 16 | 11 | 62/4 |
| 17 | 1 | 63/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 65/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 70/4 |
| 20 | 12 | 82/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 88/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 23 | 8 | 100/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 103/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 108/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 110/6 |
| 28 | 3 | 113/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 117/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 119/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 124/6 |
| 32 | 6 | 130/6 |
| 33 | 8 | 138/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 142/6 |
| 35 | 4 | 146/6 |
| 36 | 7 | 153/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 157/6 |
| 38 | 1 | 158/7 |
| 39 | 15 | 173/7 |
| 40 | 2 | 175/8 |
| 41 | 0 | 175/8 |
| 42 | 2 | 177/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 178/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 178/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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