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Photo: PaddyBriggs
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Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
5 Jan 2025 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 36%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (New Zealand: 55% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngnot out12 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 90* | 86 | 12 | 0 | 104.65 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Chamindu Wickramasinghe6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Chamindu Wickramasinghe | 45 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 125.00 |
| Mark Chapmannot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 29* | 36 | 3 | 0 | 80.56 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lahiru Kumara0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 8.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 8.20 | 5 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamindu Wickramasinghe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 8.40 | 2 | 0 |
1-93 (Rachin Ravindra, 12.3)
Recorded target: 179 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 52/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 59/0 |
| 10 | 11 | 70/0 |
| 11 | 14 | 84/0 |
| 12 | 6 | 90/0 |
| 13 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 108/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 115/1 |
| 17 | 10 | 125/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 133/1 |
| 19 | 10 | 143/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 149/1 |
| 21 | 6 | 155/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 157/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 158/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 160/1 |
| 25 | 9 | 169/1 |
| 26 | 5 | 174/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 180/1 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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