**Edgbaston**
Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GloucestershireversusBirmingham Bears

6 Sept 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 14 runs

Gloucestershire19.2 overs138/10 Birmingham Bears20.0 overs124/9 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 38%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Birmingham Bears is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Birmingham Bears: 0% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.2: OJ Price to SR Hain, SR Hain out. Gloucestershire up from 28% to 52%.
2nd inns 16.4: J Shaw to ZGF Foulkes, ZGF Foulkes out. Gloucestershire up from 47% to 72%.
2nd inns 17.4: MD Taylor to CG Benjamin, six by CG Benjamin. Birmingham Bears up from 27% to 47%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire138/10 Birmingham Bears124/9

Innings 1