NetherlandsversusBangladesh

1 Sept 2025 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 9 wickets

Netherlands17.3 overs103/10 Bangladesh13.1 overs104/1 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

30%Netherlands70%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 5 and Netherlands won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Netherlands (1,593 vs 1,556 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 27%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Bangladesh: 67% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Nasum Ahmed to MP O'Dowd, MP O'Dowd out. Bangladesh up from 69% to 78%.
2.3: Nasum Ahmed to AT Nidamanuru, AT Nidamanuru out. Bangladesh up from 78% to 85%.
5.3: Taskin Ahmed to Vikramjit Singh, Vikramjit Singh out. Bangladesh up from 79% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands103/10 Bangladesh104/1

Innings 2

Bangladesh

104/113.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Scott Edwards · Kyle Klein 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Kyle Klein	23	21	3	1	109.52
Tanzid Hasannot out 4 fours · 2 sixes	not out	54*	40	4	2	135.00
Litton Dasnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes	not out	18*	18	2	0	100.00
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	13	14/0
3	5	19/0
4	13	32/0
5	4	36/0
6	5	41/1
7	6	47/1
8	8	55/1
9	11	66/1
10	5	71/1
11	4	75/1
12	15	90/1
13	10	100/1
14	4	104/1

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