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New Zealand tour of Ireland · 2026 · Men
27 May 2026 · Test
Recorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Dohenycaught · Devon Conway · Blair Tickner 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Blair Tickner | 57 | 117 | 9 | 0 | 48.72 |
 Andrew Balbirniecaught · Tom Blundell · Blair Tickner3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Blair Tickner | 14 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 60.87 |
| Cade Carmichaelcaught · Tom Latham · Blair Tickner 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Blair Tickner | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 35.29 |
| Thomas Mayescaught · Daryl Mitchell · Nathan Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Nathan Smith | 5 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 20.00 |
| caught · Tom Latham · b Blair Tickner |
| 2 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 13.33 |
| Curtis Campherretired hurt · Ben Sears 1 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 4* | 20 | 1 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Daryl Mitchell · Nathan Smith 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Nathan Smith | 50 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Andrew McBrinecaught · Nathan Smith · Zakary Foulkes2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Zakary Foulkes | 13 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 56.52 |
|---|
| Mark Adairnot out 7 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 44* | 47 | 7 | 0 | 93.62 |
|---|
| L McCarthyrun out · Devon Conway, Blair Tickner · Blair Tickner 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Devon Conway, Blair Tickner | 11 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 78.57 |
|---|
| R Wilsoncaught · Daryl Mitchell · Blair Tickner 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Blair Tickner | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 14 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith6 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 15.0 | 6 | 53 | 2 | 3.53 | 1 | 3 |
| Zakary Foulkes3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 3 | 50 | 1 | 3.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Blair Tickner3 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 17.2 | 3 | 76 | 5 | 4.38 | 1 | 1 |
| Ben Sears6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 2.47 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Mitchell2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-42 (Andrew Balbirnie, 9.1) · 2-57 (Cade Carmichael, 13.3) · 3-70 (Thomas Mayes, 21.0) · 4-75 (Harry Tector, 25.4) · 5-104 (Stephen Doheny, 39.5) · 6-150 (Andrew McBrine, 49.2) · 7-170 (Lorcan Tucker, 54.1) · 8-223 (L McCarthy, 60.0) · 9-232 (R Wilson, 63.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 34/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 35/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 35/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 42/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 49/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 50/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 53/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 61/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 65/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 65/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 66/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 70/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 70/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 73/3 |
| 23 | 0 | 73/3 |
| 24 | 0 | 73/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 73/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 75/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 75/4 |
| 28 | 0 | 75/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 82/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 83/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 84/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 88/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 90/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 90/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 94/4 |
| 37 | 0 | 94/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 99/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 105/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 105/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 112/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 121/5 |
| 44 | 9 | 130/5 |
| 45 | 0 | 130/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 131/5 |
| 47 | 4 | 135/5 |
| 48 | 6 | 141/5 |
| 49 | 8 | 149/5 |
| 50 | 3 | 152/6 |
| 51 | 4 | 156/6 |
| 52 | 4 | 160/6 |
| 53 | 5 | 165/6 |
| 54 | 5 | 170/6 |
| 55 | 7 | 177/7 |
| 56 | 6 | 183/7 |
| 57 | 5 | 188/7 |
| 58 | 12 | 200/7 |
| 59 | 9 | 209/7 |
| 60 | 14 | 223/8 |
| 61 | 0 | 223/8 |
| 62 | 7 | 230/8 |
| 63 | 1 | 231/8 |
| 64 | 1 | 232/9 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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