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Photo: A Cricket Premi
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
8 Mar 2026 · T20
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 84%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 18%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertcaught · Ishan Kishan · Varun Chakravarthy 2 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Varun Chakravarthy | 52 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 200.00 |
| Finn Allencaught · Tilak Varma · Axar Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tilak Varma · b Axar Patel | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 128.57 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Ishan Kishan · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Jasprit Bumrah | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Glenn Phillipsbowled · Axar Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Mark Chapmanbowled · Hardik Pandya 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Ishan Kishan · Axar Patel 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Axar Patel | 17 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 154.55 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnerbowled · Jasprit Bumrah 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 43 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 122.86 |
|---|
| James Neeshambowled · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Matt Henrybowled · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Lockie Fergusonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffycaught · Tilak Varma · Abhishek Sharma0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tilak Varma · b Abhishek Sharma | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 5 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Finn Allen, 2.4) · 2-32 (Rachin Ravindra, 3.1) · 3-47 (Glenn Phillips, 4.5) · 4-70 (Mark Chapman, 7.4) · 5-72 (Tim Seifert, 8.1) · 6-124 (Daryl Mitchell, 12.5) · 7-141 (James Neesham, 15.3) · 8-141 (Matt Henry, 15.4) · 9-152 (Mitchell Santner, 17.3) · 10-159 (Jacob Duffy, 19.0)
Recorded target: 256 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 21 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 32/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 5 | 11 | 47/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 52/3 |
| 7 | 16 | 68/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 72/4 |
| 9 | 11 | 83/5 |
| 10 | 5 | 88/5 |
| 11 | 15 | 103/5 |
| 12 | 16 | 119/5 |
| 13 | 9 | 128/6 |
| 14 | 6 | 134/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 139/6 |
| 16 | 4 | 143/8 |
| 17 | 9 | 152/8 |
| 18 | 2 | 154/9 |
| 19 | 5 | 159/10 |
Sanju Samson: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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