IndonesiaversusMongolia

22 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 120 runs

Indonesia19.5 overs148/4 Mongolia19.5 overs28/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Indonesia more likely to win

88%Indonesia12%Mongolia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than Mongolia (1,421 vs 1,178 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 2 and Mongolia won 0
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 88%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Mongolia is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (Mongolia: 0% to 17%).

Biggest swings

0.1: O Erdenebaatar to IGASF Pratiwi, IGASF Pratiwi out. Mongolia up from 11% to 17%.
6.6: M Enkhzul to NKF Rada Rani, NKF Rada Rani out. Mongolia up from 8% to 11%.
2nd inns 6.5: SI Bara to E Khaliunaa, E Khaliunaa out. Indonesia up from 94% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia148/4 Mongolia28/10

Innings 2

Mongolia

28/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mongolia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	SR
B Ichinkhorloocaught · IGASF Pratiwi · Hilva Noor 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · IGASF Pratiwi · b Hilva Noor	4	42	9.52
E Khaliunaacaught · NKD Murtiari · SI Bara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · NKD Murtiari · b SI Bara	4	17	23.53
T Ariuntsetsegrun out · NKD Murtiari · Hilva Noor 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · NKD Murtiari	6	12	50.00
G Anujincaught · NKF Rada Rani · Hilva Noor 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · NKF Rada Rani · b Hilva Noor	1	6	16.67
J Erdenesuvdrun out · NKD Murtiari, SAN Maypriani · SAN Maypriani 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · NKD Murtiari, SAN Maypriani	1	12	8.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
NKD Murtiari3 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	3	3	1	0.75	2
NKDP Putri1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	5	1	1.30	1
SI Bara1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	4	4	1.00	2
L Qiao1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	0	2.00	1
Hilva Noor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	2	1.50	1
SAN Maypriani1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	5	0	1.67	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	4	4/0
3	0	4/0
4	2	6/0
5	2	8/0
6	0	8/0
7	1	9/1
8	4	13/1
9	0	13/1
10	2	15/1
11	1	16/2
12	3	19/2
13	2	21/4
14	0	21/4
15	1	22/7
16	3	25/8
17	0	25/8
18	0	25/8
19	3	28/9
20	0	28/10

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