South AfricaversusNamibia

11 Oct 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 4 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs134/8 Namibia20.0 overs138/6 Namibia Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%South Africa52%Namibia

Why

Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Namibia (1,589 vs 1,569 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 45%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 9% to 74% during the match (Namibia: 26% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.5: A Simelane to JJ Smit, JJ Smit out. South Africa up from 26% to 45%.
2nd inns 16.3: N Burger to MB Kruger, MB Kruger out. South Africa up from 46% to 66%.
2nd inns 19.1: A Simelane to ZE Green, six by ZE Green. Namibia up from 40% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa134/8 Namibia138/6

Innings 2

Namibia

138/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Louren Steenkampbowled · Gerald Coetzee 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gerald Coetzee	13	19	1	68.42
Jan Frylinckbowled · Nandre Burger 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nandre Burger	7	5	1	140.00
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Lizaad Williams · Andile Simelane 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Lizaad Williams · b Andile Simelane	7	11	1	63.64
Gerhard Erasmuscaught and bowled · Bjorn Fortuin 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Bjorn Fortuin	21	21	3	100.00
JJ Smitcaught · Jason Smith · Andile Simelane 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jason Smith · b Andile Simelane	13	14	1	92.86

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Nandre Burger0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	1	2
Lizaad Williams0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	1	0
Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	1.3	14	1	9.33	4	0
Donavon Ferreira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	17	0	6.80	0	0
Andile Simelane0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1	0
Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	8	13/0
3	9	22/1
4	6	28/2
5	6	34/2
6	12	46/2
7	5	51/3
8	7	58/3
9	3	61/3
10	6	67/4
11	4	71/4
12	9	80/4
13	5	85/5
14	4	89/5
15	2	91/5
16	8	99/5
17	4	103/6
18	9	112/6
19	12	124/6
20	14	138/6

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