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ICC Women's T20I Challenge Trophy · 2026 · Women
19 Apr 2026 · T20
Rwanda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Rwanda started on 60%; Rwanda batted first.
Rwanda's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Vanuatu: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Andrewcaught · M Uwase · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Uwase · b B Murekatete | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| V Langiaturun out · Rosine Irera · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rosine Irera | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
| N Navaikalbw · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b B Murekatete | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Selina Solmanbowled · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 10 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| S Stephencaught · B Murekatete · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · B Murekatete · b Marie Bimenyimana | 20 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 68.97 |
| caught · M Uwase · b R Shimwamana |
| 9 |
| 19 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 47.37 |
| A Chiliabowled · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marie Bimenyimana | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| V Virarun out · A Ikuzwe, M Uwase · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Ikuzwe, M Uwase | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
|---|
| A Griffinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| R Ovabowled · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marie Bimenyimana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Tarimialabowled · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b B Murekatete | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Murekatete0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1.71 | 1 | 0 |
| Rosine Irera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Marie Bimenyimana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| R Shimwamana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-0 (R Andrew, 0.2) · 2-4 (N Navaika, 2.1) · 3-16 (V Langiatu, 5.3) · 4-26 (Selina Solman, 7.2) · 5-53 (S Stephen, 12.3) · 6-53 (A Chilia, 13.0) · 7-60 (G Chilia, 16.3) · 8-66 (V Vira, 17.5) · 9-67 (R Ova, 18.3) · 10-68 (M Tarimiala, 19.3)
Recorded target: 110 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 19/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 24/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 28/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 32/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 38/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 44/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 53/4 |
| 13 | 0 | 53/6 |
| 14 | 1 | 54/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 57/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 60/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 62/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 66/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 67/9 |
| 20 | 1 | 68/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.