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Papua New Guinea tour of Guernsey · 2025 · Men
14 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Guernsey started on 42%; Guernsey batted first.
Guernsey's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 34% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Barkercaught · Hila Vare · Alei Nao 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hila Vare · b Alei Nao | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Josh Butlercaught · Damien Ravu · Alei Nao 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Damien Ravu · b Alei Nao | 13 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 92.86 |
| Tom Nightingalecaught · Kiplin Doriga · John Kariko 9 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kiplin Doriga · b John Kariko | 75 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 147.06 |
| Oliver Nightingalerun out · Sese Bau · Kabua Morea 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sese Bau | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 47.06 |
| Isaac Damarellcaught · Sese Bau · Kabua Morea 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sese Bau · b Kabua Morea | 45 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 166.67 |
| run out · Hila Vare |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Ben Ferbrachenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| A Martelnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kabua Morea0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Alei Nao0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| John Kariko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Ravu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Assad Vala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Lucas Barker, 1.3) · 2-20 (Josh Butler, 3.5) · 3-69 (Oliver Nightingale, 10.5) · 4-142 (Tom Nightingale, 17.5) · 5-154 (Isaac Damarell, 19.0) · 6-159 (M Dale-Bradley, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 5 | 11 | 31/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 48/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 53/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 64/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 69/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 76/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 83/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 91/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 98/3 |
| 16 | 16 | 114/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 125/3 |
| 18 | 18 | 143/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 154/5 |
| 20 | 11 | 165/6 |
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
