**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

PakistanversusThailand

1 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 35 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs119/9 Thailand20.0 overs84/8 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

27%Pakistan73%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,702 vs 1,490 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 3 and Thailand won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 26%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 85%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.2: Sadia Iqbal to P Maya, P Maya out. Pakistan up from 25% to 33%.
2nd inns 1.6: Sadia Iqbal to N Koncharoenkai, N Koncharoenkai out. Pakistan up from 35% to 48%.
2nd inns 9.4: Nashra Sandhu to N Chantam, N Chantam out. Pakistan up from 60% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan119/9 Thailand84/8

Innings 2

Thailand

84/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natthakan Chantambowled · Nashra Sandhu 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nashra Sandhu	14	27	1	0	51.85
Phannita Mayabowled · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sadia Iqbal	4	5	0	0	80.00
Nannapat Koncharoenkaicaught · Eyman Fatima · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Eyman Fatima · b Sadia Iqbal	0	4	0	0	0.00
Naruemol Chaiwaicaught · Ayesha Zafar · Tuba Hassan 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ayesha Zafar · b Tuba Hassan	17

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	0
Sadia Iqbal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	3	2.75	0
Umm-e-Hani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	0	5.00	2
Nashra Sandhu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	6	1	1.50	0
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	0
Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	0	6/2
3	1	7/2
4	2	9/2
5	11	20/2
6	2	22/2
7	4	26/2
8	1	27/2
9	5	32/2
10	1	33/3
11	1	34/3
12	0	34/3
13	8	42/4
14	10	52/4
15	7	59/4
16	4	63/4
17	2	65/5
18	8	73/6
19	4	77/7
20	7	84/8

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