Sydney SixersversusHobart Hurricanes

1 Nov 2026 · T20

Drummoyne Oval, Sydney · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 87 runs

Sydney Sixers20.0 overs196/8 Hobart Hurricanes17.4 overs109/10 Drummoyne Oval, Sydney ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Sixers started on 47%; Sydney Sixers batted first.

Sydney Sixers’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Sydney Sixers's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

0.2: CA Henry to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 53% to 66%.
1.2: NJ Carey to EA Perry, EA Perry out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 63% to 73%.
2.3: CA Henry to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 74% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.