DenmarkversusGuernsey

28 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Guernsey won by 6 wickets

Denmark20.0 overs158/7 Guernsey18.4 overs159/4 King George V Sports Ground, Castel ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Guernsey more likely to win

33%Denmark67%Guernsey

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Guernsey rate stronger than Denmark (1,497 vs 1,450 on our results rating)
Guernsey are playing at home in Guernsey
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Guernsey won 1 and Denmark won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Denmark started on 31%; Denmark batted first.

Denmark’s chance of winning (%) · Guernsey is the rest

Denmark's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Guernsey: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.2: Toqeer Ahmad to B Fitchet, B Fitchet out. Denmark up from 42% to 53%.
2nd inns 4.4: Surya Anand to T Nightingale, T Nightingale out. Denmark up from 42% to 55%.
2nd inns 13.6: SA Ahmad to MWR Stokes, six by MWR Stokes. Guernsey up from 76% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Denmark158/7 Guernsey159/4

Innings 1

Denmark

158/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Denmark batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Taranjit Bharajcaught · Isaac Damarell · C Forshaw 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Isaac Damarell · b C Forshaw	9	9	2	0	100.00
Hamid Shahcaught · Isaac Damarell · LT Bichard 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Isaac Damarell · b LT Bichard	22	18	3	1	122.22
Shangeev Thanikaithasancaught · Isaac Damarell · C Forshaw 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Isaac Damarell · b C Forshaw	0	1	0	0	0.00
Saif Ahmadcaught · LT Bichard · Harry Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LT Bichard · b Harry Johnson	0	3	0	0	0.00
Surya Anandcaught · Matthew Stokes · M Dale-Bradley 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Matthew Stokes · b M Dale-Bradley	17	26	1	0	65.38

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Harry Johnson0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	3
LT Bichard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	0
C Forshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	0
M Dale-Bradley0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	5
Matthew Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0
Tom Nightingale0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	1
A Martel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	4	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/0
3	11	22/2
4	8	30/2
5	3	33/3
6	2	35/4
7	15	50/4
8	4	54/4
9	9	63/4
10	12	75/4
11	6	81/4
12	4	85/4
13	3	88/5
14	5	93/5
15	7	100/5
16	4	104/5
17	26	130/5
18	12	142/6
19	6	148/6
20	10	158/7

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