IrelandversusBangladesh

27 Nov 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 39 runs

Ireland20.0 overs181/4 Bangladesh20.0 overs142/9 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

33%Ireland67%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Ireland (1,504 vs 1,444 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 3 and Ireland won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 31%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

4.2: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to PR Stirling, PR Stirling out. Bangladesh up from 50% to 60%.
2nd inns 0.5: MJ Humphreys to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Ireland up from 53% to 65%.
2nd inns 1.2: MR Adair to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Ireland up from 64% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland181/4 Bangladesh142/9

Innings 2

Bangladesh

142/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught · Harry Tector · Matthew Humphreys 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harry Tector · b Matthew Humphreys	2	5	0	0	40.00
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · George Dockrell · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · George Dockrell · b Mark Adair	1	6	0	0	16.67
Litton Dascaught · Tim Tector · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tim Tector · b Mark Adair	1	3	0	0	33.33
Saif Hassanbowled · Barry McCarthy 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Barry McCarthy	6	13	1	0	46.15

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	4	3.25	4
Mark Adair1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	2	5.00	2
Joshua Little0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	40	0	10.00	2
Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	3	5.75	2
Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	24	0	12.00	0
Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	22	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	0	4/2
3	1	5/2
4	3	8/3
5	9	17/3
6	3	20/4
7	10	30/4
8	8	38/4
9	5	43/4
10	16	59/4
11	7	66/4
12	5	71/5
13	3	74/8
14	7	81/8
15	12	93/8
16	7	100/8
17	14	114/8
18	8	122/9
19	5	127/9
20	15	142/9

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