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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
6 Jun 2025 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 61%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittbowled · Safyaan Sharif 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Safyaan Sharif | 35 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 67.31 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught and bowled · Brandon McMullen 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Brandon McMullen | 23 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 164.29 |
| Vikramjit Singhcaught · Finlay McCreath · Brandon McMullen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Finlay McCreath · b Brandon McMullen | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Matty Cross · Safyaan Sharif2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Safyaan Sharif | 13 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 59.09 |
| Wesley Barresilbw · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes |
Scotland's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Mark Watt |
| 13 |
| 31 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 41.94 |
| Teja Nidamanurucaught · George Munsey · Jasper John Davidson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Jasper John Davidson | 17 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 85.00 |
|---|
| Noah Croescaught · Matty Cross · Mark Watt 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Mark Watt | 26 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 108.33 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinlbw · Brandon McMullen 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brandon McMullen | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwenot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 30* | 36 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttcaught · Mark Watt · Michael Leask 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Michael Leask | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
|---|
| Paul van Meekerenbowled · Jasper John Davidson 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jasper John Davidson | 19 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 82.61 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper John Davidson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 63 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 6.57 | 0 | 1 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-29 (Max O'Dowd, 3.5) · 2-43 (Vikramjit Singh, 7.3) · 3-78 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 15.5) · 4-95 (Michael Levitt, 21.1) · 5-97 (Wesley Barresi, 22.1) · 6-133 (Noah Croes, 28.4) · 7-144 (Teja Nidamanuru, 30.1) · 8-176 (Kyle Klein, 36.0) · 9-186 (Aryan Dutt, 39.2) · 10-218 (Paul van Meekeren, 45.0)
Recorded target: 263 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 21 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 39/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 48/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 52/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 55/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 76/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 79/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 82/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 90/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 95/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 97/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 101/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 104/5 |
| 25 | 6 | 110/5 |
| 26 | 10 | 120/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 122/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 127/5 |
| 29 | 8 | 135/6 |
| 30 | 9 | 144/6 |
| 31 | 10 | 154/7 |
| 32 | 5 | 159/7 |
| 33 | 4 | 163/7 |
| 34 | 10 | 173/7 |
| 35 | 1 | 174/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 176/8 |
| 37 | 4 | 180/8 |
| 38 | 4 | 184/8 |
| 39 | 2 | 186/8 |
| 40 | 2 | 188/9 |
| 41 | 2 | 190/9 |
| 42 | 3 | 193/9 |
| 43 | 5 | 198/9 |
| 44 | 6 | 204/9 |
| 45 | 14 | 218/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
