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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
1 Oct 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 89%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alyssa Healycaught · Suzie Bates · Bree Illing3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Bree Illing | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 111.76 |
 Phoebe Litchfieldbowled · Amelia Kerr6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 45 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 145.16 |
 Ellyse Perrycaught · Suzie Bates · Lea Tahuhu5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Lea Tahuhu | 33 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 80.49 |
 Beth Mooneycaught · Amelia Kerr · Lea Tahuhu1 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 25%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Amelia Kerr · b Lea Tahuhu |
| 12 |
| 21 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 57.14 |
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught · Suzie Bates · Amelia Kerr1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Amelia Kerr | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnercaught · Izzy Gaze · Bree Illing16 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Bree Illing | 115 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 138.55 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathcaught · Amelia Kerr · Lea Tahuhu3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amelia Kerr · b Lea Tahuhu | 26 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 76.47 |
|---|
 Sophie Molineuxcaught · Sophie Devine · Jess Kerr1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sophie Devine · b Jess Kerr | 14 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 73.68 |
|---|
 Kim Garthcaught · Georgia Plimmer · Jess Kerr5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Jess Kerr | 38 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 102.70 |
|---|
 Alana Kingcaught · Suzie Bates · Jess Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Jess Kerr | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
 Darcie Brownnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 75 | 2 | 8.33 | 0 | 2 |
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 6.94 | 2 | 0 |
 Sophie Devine0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 6.88 | 3 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 5.40 | 2 | 0 |
 Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 5.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-40 (Alyssa Healy, 5.0) · 2-81 (Phoebe Litchfield, 10.1) · 3-108 (Ellyse Perry, 17.2) · 4-113 (Annabel Sutherland, 18.4) · 5-128 (Beth Mooney, 21.2) · 6-192 (Tahlia McGrath, 32.0) · 7-239 (Sophie Molineux, 37.5) · 8-308 (Ashleigh Gardner, 46.3) · 9-325 (Alana King, 49.1) · 10-326 (Kim Garth, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 57/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 69/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 81/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 83/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 86/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 93/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 99/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 101/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 107/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 109/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 114/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 120/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 127/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 133/5 |
| 23 | 4 | 137/5 |
| 24 | 9 | 146/5 |
| 25 | 11 | 157/5 |
| 26 | 7 | 164/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 166/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 171/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 175/5 |
| 30 | 10 | 185/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 187/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 192/6 |
| 33 | 13 | 205/6 |
| 34 | 11 | 216/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 217/6 |
| 36 | 4 | 221/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 230/6 |
| 38 | 10 | 240/7 |
| 39 | 6 | 246/7 |
| 40 | 6 | 252/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 255/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 260/7 |
| 43 | 4 | 264/7 |
| 44 | 10 | 274/7 |
| 45 | 9 | 283/7 |
| 46 | 15 | 298/7 |
| 47 | 12 | 310/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 313/8 |
| 49 | 12 | 325/8 |
| 50 | 1 | 326/10 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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