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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
1 Oct 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 89%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batesbowled · Sophie Molineux0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Molineux | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Georgia Plimmerrun out · Alyssa Healy, Annabel Sutherland · Kim Garth 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alyssa Healy, Annabel Sutherland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Amelia Kerrcaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Alana King5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Alana King | 33 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 58.93 |
 Sophie Devinebowled · Annabel Sutherland12 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland |
Australia's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 25%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 112 |
| 12 |
| 3 |
| 100.00 |
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Alana King 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Alana King | 28 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 73.68 |
|---|
 Maddy Greenrun out · Alyssa Healy, Darcie Brown · Annabel Sutherland3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alyssa Healy, Darcie Brown | 20 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazecaught · Annabel Sutherland · Sophie Molineux 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Sophie Molineux | 28 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 155.56 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrbowled · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Lea Tahuhunot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Eden Carsonlbw · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Annabel Sutherland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Bree Illingcaught · Alyssa Healy · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alyssa Healy · b Sophie Molineux | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kim Garth1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Sophie Molineux1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.2 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Darcie Brown0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 2.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Alana King1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 7.83 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Georgia Plimmer, 1.0) · 2-0 (Suzie Bates, 1.3) · 3-75 (Amelia Kerr, 19.1) · 4-127 (Brooke Halliday, 30.0) · 5-164 (Maddy Green, 34.5) · 6-218 (Izzy Gaze, 40.4) · 7-235 (Sophie Devine, 42.1) · 8-236 (Jess Kerr, 42.3) · 9-236 (Eden Carson, 42.4) · 10-237 (Bree Illing, 43.2)
Recorded target: 327 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 4/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 12/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 14/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 16/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 24/2 |
| 10 | 12 | 36/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 48/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 54/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 61/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 62/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 68/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 83/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 89/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 93/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 100/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 107/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 116/3 |
| 30 | 11 | 127/4 |
| 31 | 11 | 138/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 146/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 150/4 |
| 34 | 12 | 162/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 164/5 |
| 36 | 16 | 180/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 185/5 |
| 38 | 14 | 199/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 201/5 |
| 40 | 16 | 217/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 220/6 |
| 42 | 15 | 235/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 236/9 |
| 44 | 1 | 237/10 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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