PhilippinesversusSouth Korea

12 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Philippines won by 85 runs

Philippines20.0 overs184/9 South Korea17.2 overs99/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

80%Philippines20%South Korea

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than South Korea (1,417 vs 1,268 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 6 and South Korea won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Philippines started on 78%; Philippines batted first.

Philippines’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Philippines's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (South Korea: 0% to 46%).

Biggest swings

0.3: DVD Madampage to ASF Sirah, ASF Sirah out. South Korea up from 20% to 28%.
1.6: S Maduranga to AS Samra, AS Samra out. South Korea up from 21% to 29%.
2.1: DVD Madampage to M Podosky, M Podosky out. South Korea up from 29% to 46%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Philippines184/9 South Korea99/10

Innings 2

South Korea

99/1017.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Korea batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Daham Madampagecaught · G Chohan · J Tuffin 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · G Chohan · b J Tuffin	6	8	1	0	75.00
Balage Dilrukshabowled · KDA Lukies 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b KDA Lukies	1	5	0	0	20.00
HMHE Parsonscaught · AS Samra · N Tanner 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · AS Samra · b N Tanner	17	16	1	1	106.25
Nishat Sakiblbw · N Tanner 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b N Tanner	27	30	4	0	90.00
Sameera Madurangalbw · Henry Tyler 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Henry Tyler	3	4	0	0	75.00
Bilal Ahmad Mir

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
J Tuffin0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	1	6.33	3
KDA Lukies0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	1	2.33	0
A Donovan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	6	1	3.00	1
G Chohan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	13	1	9.75	0
N Tanner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	2	8.00	1
Henry Tyler0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	4	4.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	2	10/1
3	3	13/2
4	4	17/2
5	9	26/2
6	3	29/2
7	4	33/2
8	13	46/2
9	6	52/3
10	6	58/4
11	11	69/4
12	4	73/5
13	9	82/5
14	1	83/7
15	7	90/8
16	7	97/8
17	2	99/9
18	0	99/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.