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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
4 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 71%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Deepti Sharma | 22 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 81.48 |
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · AB Kaur · Arundhati Reddy 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AB Kaur · b Arundhati Reddy | 33 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 56.90 |
5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arundhati Reddy · b Pratika Rawal | 53 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 86.89 |
3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richa Ghosh · b Sneh Rana |
India's chances ranged from 11% to 88% during the match (Sri Lanka: 12% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 23 |
| 33 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 69.70 |
5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arundhati Reddy · b Sneh Rana | 35 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 109.38 |
|---|
5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Shree Charani | 56 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 169.70 |
|---|
| Dewmi Vihangacaught · AB Kaur · Sneh Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AB Kaur · b Sneh Rana | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 23* | 28 | 2 | 0 | 82.14 |
|---|
2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 19* | 20 | 2 | 0 | 95.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashvee Gautam1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.11 | 1 | 0 |
| Sneh Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 3 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pratika Rawal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 6.19 | 2 | 0 |
| Shree Charani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
1-30 (Hasini Perera, 7.1) · 2-108 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 22.5) · 3-121 (Harshitha Madavi, 26.1) · 4-152 (Chamari Atapattu, 32.1) · 5-209 (Kavisha Dilhari, 38.3) · 6-225 (Dewmi Vihanga, 40.1) · 7-238 (Nilakshi de Silva, 42.4)
Recorded target: 276 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 32/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 40/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 73/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 78/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 81/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 88/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 92/1 |
| 21 | 6 | 98/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 105/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 109/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 111/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 117/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 121/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 126/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 132/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 135/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 142/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 149/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 152/3 |
| 33 | 10 | 162/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 170/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 177/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 184/4 |
| 37 | 20 | 204/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 208/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 211/5 |
| 40 | 14 | 225/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 231/6 |
| 42 | 6 | 237/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 242/7 |
| 44 | 7 | 249/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 257/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 260/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 263/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 269/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 274/7 |
| 50 | 4 | 278/7 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.