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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Region Final · 2025/26 · Men
28 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 74%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Botswana: 0% to 25%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Modisebowled · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Richard Ngarava | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Vinoo Balakrishnancaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Richard Ngarava | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Karabo Motlhankacaught · Tony Munyonga · Blessing Muzarabani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony Munyonga · b Blessing Muzarabani | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| M Kasselmanbowled · Brad Evans 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Evans | 26 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 74.29 |
| Reginald Nehondebowled · Ryan Burl 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ryan Burl | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
| not out |
| 31* |
| 32 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 96.88 |
| Thatayaone Tshosebowled · Ryan Burl 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ryan Burl | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| K Pietcaught and bowled · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sikandar Raza | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Dhruv Maisuriacaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Tinotenda Maposa 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Tinotenda Maposa | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| B Kegannenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tinotenda Maposa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Burl0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (K Modise, 0.1) · 2-8 (Karabo Motlhanka, 1.4) · 3-8 (Vinoo Balakrishnan, 2.2) · 4-35 (Reginald Nehonde, 8.0) · 5-60 (M Kasselman, 12.3) · 6-66 (Thatayaone Tshose, 14.5) · 7-72 (K Piet, 17.1) · 8-88 (Dhruv Maisuria, 19.5)
Recorded target: 260 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 3 | 11/3 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/3 |
| 5 | 9 | 23/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 32/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 35/4 |
| 9 | 5 | 40/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 43/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 45/4 |
| 12 | 10 | 55/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 60/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 64/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 66/6 |
| 16 | 0 | 66/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 72/6 |
| 18 | 0 | 72/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 82/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 89/8 |
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
