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UAE ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
17 Oct 2026 · ODI
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 29%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · RP Burl · Newman Nyamhuri 9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · RP Burl · b Newman Nyamhuri | 46 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 121.05 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Brian Bennett · Blessing Muzarabani2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Blessing Muzarabani | 9 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 52.94 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantolbw · Brad Evans0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Evans | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Saif Hassancaught · Brendan Taylor · Wellington Masakadza 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brendan Taylor · b Wellington Masakadza | 26 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 70.27 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Sikandar Raza |
| 13 |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 61.90 |
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikatlbw · Wellington Masakadza1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wellington Masakadza | 11 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 61.11 |
|---|
| Nurul Hasancaught · T Marumani · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Marumani · b Brad Evans | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Wellington Masakadza · Sikandar Raza4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Sikandar Raza | 23 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 69.70 |
|---|
 Shariful Islamcaught · Brian Bennett · Brad Evans0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Brad Evans | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmednot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 13 | 3 | 0 | 123.08 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmancaught and bowled · Brad Evans0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Brad Evans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 2.88 | 2 | 1 |
| Brad Evans1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.4 | 1 | 45 | 4 | 6.75 | 7 | 0 |
| Newman Nyamhuri1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 9.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-47 (Soumya Sarkar, 6.3) · 2-66 (Tanzid Hasan, 10.0) · 3-68 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 10.2) · 4-97 (Tawhid Hridoy, 16.3) · 5-112 (Mosaddek Hossain Saikat, 21.1) · 6-123 (Saif Hassan, 23.2) · 7-129 (Nurul Hasan, 27.1) · 8-129 (Shariful Islam, 27.5) · 9-161 (Rishad Hossain, 32.1) · 10-172 (Mustafizur Rahman, 33.4)
Recorded target: 272 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 13 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 37/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 47/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 48/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 54/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 66/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 72/3 |
| 12 | 12 | 84/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 87/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 101/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 105/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 106/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 108/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 112/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 118/5 |
| 23 | 4 | 122/5 |
| 24 | 1 | 123/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 125/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 127/6 |
| 27 | 2 | 129/6 |
| 28 | 0 | 129/8 |
| 29 | 3 | 132/8 |
| 30 | 9 | 141/8 |
| 31 | 3 | 144/8 |
| 32 | 17 | 161/8 |
| 33 | 6 | 167/9 |
| 34 | 5 | 172/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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