**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Paarl RoyalsversusPretoria Capitals

12 Jan 2024 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 27 runs

Paarl Royals20.0 overs160/7 Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs133/7 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Paarl Royals started on 46%; Paarl Royals batted first.

Paarl Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Paarl Royals's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 0% to 75%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: OC McCoy to TB de Bruyn, TB de Bruyn out. Paarl Royals up from 37% to 51%.
2nd inns 10.5: T Shamsi to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Paarl Royals up from 39% to 56%.
2nd inns 13.1: OC McCoy to C Bosch, C Bosch out. Paarl Royals up from 62% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.