NamibiaversusZimbabwe

16 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 5 wickets

Namibia20.0 overs169/6 Zimbabwe18.1 overs170/5 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

43%Namibia57%Zimbabwe

Why

Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Namibia (1,518 vs 1,506 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 42%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Zimbabwe: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: R Ngarava to JN Frylinck, JN Frylinck out. Zimbabwe up from 49% to 58%.
2nd inns 5.5: R Trumpelmann to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Namibia up from 25% to 36%.
2nd inns 15.6: JI de Villiers to T Munyonga, four by T Munyonga. Zimbabwe up from 74% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia169/6 Zimbabwe170/5

Innings 2

Zimbabwe

170/518.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · A Busing-Volschenk · JJ Smit 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · A Busing-Volschenk · b JJ Smit	50	36	2	3	138.89
Brian Bennettcaught · Zane Green · Ruben Trumpelmann 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Zane Green · b Ruben Trumpelmann	40	20	6	1	200.00
Brendan Taylorrun out · Gerhard Erasmus, Ruben Trumpelmann · Ruben Trumpelmann 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Gerhard Erasmus, Ruben Trumpelmann	29	26	2	0	111.54
Sikandar Razacaught · Jan-Izak de Villiers · Bernard Scholtz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jan-Izak de Villiers · b Bernard Scholtz	3	4	0	0	75.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0	0
JJ Smit0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	1	1
Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0	0
Jack Brassell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0	0
Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.1	14	0	12.00	0	0
Jan-Izak de Villiers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	12	17/0
3	12	29/0
4	13	42/0
5	10	52/0
6	7	59/1
7	12	71/1
8	11	82/1
9	8	90/1
10	4	94/1
11	12	106/1
12	8	114/1
13	4	118/2
14	6	124/3
15	6	130/4
16	10	140/4
17	12	152/5
18	12	164/5
19	6	170/5

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