CyprusversusFinland

8 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Cyprus won by 26 runs

Cyprus20.0 overs165/3 Finland18.3 overs139/10 Happy Valley Ground, Episkopi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Cyprus more likely to win

66%Cyprus34%Finland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Cyprus rate stronger than Finland (1,568 vs 1,459 on our results rating)
Cyprus are playing at home in Cyprus
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Finland won 1 and Cyprus won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cyprus started on 64%; Cyprus batted first.

Cyprus’s chance of winning (%) · Finland is the rest

Cyprus's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Finland: 0% to 48%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: Adam Senn to Kaif Jamadar, Kaif Jamadar out. Cyprus up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 2.5: Adam Senn to Faraaz Mehti Abbas, Faraaz Mehti Abbas out. Cyprus up from 72% to 82%.
2nd inns 14.4: Adam Senn to NM Salonen, NM Salonen out. Cyprus up from 75% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cyprus165/3 Finland139/10

Innings 2

Finland

139/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Finland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kaif Jamadarbowled · Adam Senn 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adam Senn	2	9	0	0	22.22
VS Padhaalcaught · Karan Singh · Adam Senn 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karan Singh · b Adam Senn	18	15	3	0	120.00
Faraaz Mehti Abbascaught · A Shahi · Adam Senn 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Shahi · b Adam Senn	1	2	0	0	50.00
Zahidullah Kamalbowled · A Shahi 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b A Shahi	39	36	2	1	108.33
Jordan O'Brienlbw · Ruel Brathwaite 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ruel Brathwaite	13	14	2	0	92.86
NM Salonen

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Adam Senn0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	4	4.50	3	0
A Shahi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	26	2	10.40	4	0
MPGT Ketiyage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	1	0
R Siriwardena0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	3	8.75	4	0
AUKDS Kalugala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0	0
Karan Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	0	4.00	1	0
Ruel Brathwaite0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	27	1	9.00	1	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	13	15/0
3	2	17/2
4	14	31/2
5	2	33/3
6	12	45/3
7	5	50/3
8	2	52/3
9	9	61/4
10	2	63/4
11	8	71/4
12	9	80/4
13	10	90/4
14	7	97/4
15	12	109/5
16	5	114/7
17	9	123/8
18	11	134/9
19	5	139/10

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