GloucestershireversusSomerset

13 Jun 2025 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Somerset won by 6 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs135/7 Somerset17.4 overs137/4 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 36%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Somerset is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Somerset: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

8.1: BGF Green to CT Bancroft, CT Bancroft out. Somerset up from 56% to 66%.
9.3: LP Goldsworthy to Miles Hammond, Miles Hammond out. Somerset up from 60% to 67%.
2nd inns 0.4: DA Payne to T Banton, T Banton out. Gloucestershire up from 13% to 20%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire135/7 Somerset137/4

Innings 1