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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
20 Oct 2026 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 53%; Pakistan batted first.
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-20
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Joe Root · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Sam Curran · Sonny Baker 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Sonny Baker | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Will Jacks4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Will Jacks | 34 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 65.38 |
| Saad Baigcaught · Sam Curran · Gus Atkinson 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Gus Atkinson | 35 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 64.81 |
| Salman Ali Agha |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Gus Atkinson · b Adil Rashid |
| 16 |
| 19 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 84.21 |
| Hassan Nawazbowled · Jamie Overton 5 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Jamie Overton | 79 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 106.76 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhascaught · Harry Brook · Sonny Baker 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Sonny Baker | 59 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 101.72 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafcaught · Will Jacks · Sam Curran 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Sam Curran | 39 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahcaught · Jamie Overton · Sonny Baker0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Sonny Baker | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Haris Raufnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonny Baker0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 65 | 3 | 7.22 | 3 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Fakhar Zaman, 0.1) · 2-31 (Saim Ayub, 5.5) · 3-59 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 14.2) · 4-81 (Salman Ali Agha, 18.4) · 5-133 (Saad Baig, 27.3) · 6-211 (Hassan Nawaz, 39.5) · 7-283 (Arafat Minhas, 48.0) · 8-285 (Fahim Ashraf, 48.3) · 9-296 (Naseem Shah, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 31/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 32/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 34/2 |
| 10 | 12 | 46/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 64/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 65/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 70/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 19 | 13 | 87/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 92/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 94/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 98/4 |
| 23 | 8 | 106/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 118/4 |
| 26 | 10 | 128/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 131/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 133/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 135/5 |
| 30 | 12 | 147/5 |
| 31 | 7 | 154/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 161/5 |
| 33 | 9 | 170/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 173/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 178/5 |
| 36 | 9 | 187/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 190/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 196/5 |
| 39 | 13 | 209/5 |
| 40 | 2 | 211/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 215/6 |
| 42 | 7 | 222/6 |
| 43 | 10 | 232/6 |
| 44 | 10 | 242/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 251/6 |
| 46 | 12 | 263/6 |
| 47 | 8 | 271/6 |
| 48 | 12 | 283/7 |
| 49 | 11 | 294/8 |
| 50 | 8 | 302/9 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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