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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
20 Oct 2026 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 53%; Pakistan batted first.
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-20
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Bantoncaught · Shaheen Afridi · Arafat Minhas 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Arafat Minhas | 57 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 107.55 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Fakhar Zaman · Haris Rauf8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Haris Rauf | 45 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 97.83 |
 Joe Rootbowled · Naseem Shah2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 33 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 94.29 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Arafat Minhas0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arafat Minhas | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Sam Currancaught · Ghazi Ghori · Haris Rauf0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ghazi Ghori · b Haris Rauf | 27 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Jordan Coxlbw · Arafat Minhas 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Arafat Minhas | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 112.50 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Shaheen Afridi · Arafat Minhas1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Arafat Minhas | 19 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 79.17 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Hassan Nawaz · Arafat Minhas0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Arafat Minhas | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonrun out · Arafat Minhas · Arafat Minhas 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Arafat Minhas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidlbw · Arafat Minhas0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Arafat Minhas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sonny Bakernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 5.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 6.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 5.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Arafat Minhas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 40 | 6 | 4.62 | 0 | 0 |
1-91 (Ben Duckett, 14.3) · 2-120 (Tom Banton, 18.3) · 3-128 (Harry Brook, 20.2) · 4-165 (Joe Root, 28.5) · 5-177 (Sam Curran, 31.3) · 6-197 (Jordan Cox, 34.5) · 7-205 (Jamie Overton, 36.4) · 8-214 (Will Jacks, 38.1) · 9-214 (Adil Rashid, 38.2) · 10-215 (Gus Atkinson, 38.4)
Recorded target: 303 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 18 | 52/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 61/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 65/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 70/0 |
| 12 | 10 | 80/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 84/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 88/0 |
| 15 | 8 | 96/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 101/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 107/1 |
| 18 | 10 | 117/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 121/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 131/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 135/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 140/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 144/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 147/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 156/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 159/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 164/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 165/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 170/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 176/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 177/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 180/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 188/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 197/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 200/6 |
| 37 | 6 | 206/7 |
| 38 | 8 | 214/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 215/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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