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Photo: Marc Dalmulder from Hamlyn Terrace, Australia
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Pakistan tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
16 Nov 2024 · T20
Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 84%; Australia batted first.
Australia's chances ranged from 51% to 99% during the match (Pakistan: 1% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammad Rizwancaught · Tim David · Spencer Johnson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim David · b Spencer Johnson | 16 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Nathan Ellis · Xavier Bartlett0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Ellis · b Xavier Bartlett | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Xavier Bartlett · Spencer Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Spencer Johnson | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Usman Khancaught · Xavier Bartlett · Spencer Johnson4 fours · 1 sixes |
| 52 |
| 38 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 136.84 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Josh Inglis · Spencer Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Spencer Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Irfan Khannot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 37* | 28 | 4 | 1 | 132.14 |
|---|
| Abbas Afridicaught · Matthew Short · Spencer Johnson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Spencer Johnson | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridibowled · Adam Zampa0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahbowled · Adam Zampa0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sufyan Moqeemrun out · Matthew Short, Josh Inglis · Marcus Stoinis 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matthew Short, Josh Inglis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Haris Raufrun out · Josh Inglis, Tim David · Nathan Ellis0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Josh Inglis, Tim David | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 6.50 | 8 | 0 |
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 8.18 | 3 | 0 |
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 1.1) · 2-17 (Sahibzada Farhan, 2.5) · 3-44 (Mohammad Rizwan, 9.2) · 4-44 (Salman Ali Agha, 9.3) · 5-102 (Usman Khan, 15.2) · 6-106 (Abbas Afridi, 15.4) · 7-107 (Shaheen Afridi, 16.3) · 8-107 (Naseem Shah, 16.5) · 9-127 (Sufyan Moqeem, 18.3) · 10-134 (Haris Rauf, 19.4)
Recorded target: 148 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 20/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 27/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 30/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 36/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 40/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 44/4 |
| 11 | 11 | 55/4 |
| 12 | 13 | 68/4 |
| 13 | 12 | 80/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 89/4 |
| 15 | 12 | 101/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 106/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 107/8 |
| 18 | 17 | 124/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 132/9 |
| 20 | 2 | 134/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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