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Photo: Barry Dogger
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2026 · Women
25 Jun 2026 · T20
County Ground, Bristol · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 58%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 41%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Babette de Leede · Hannah Landheer6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Babette de Leede · b Hannah Landheer | 45 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Tazmin Britsnot out 15 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 114* | 69 | 15 | 3 | 165.22 |
| Annerie Dercksennot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 37* | 16 | 3 | 2 | 231.25 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederique Overdijk |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 26 |
| 0 |
| 13.00 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 11.25 | 6 | 0 |
|---|
| Robine Rijke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| MIW van den Raad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
1-121 (Laura Wolvaardt, 13.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 17 | 53/0 |
| 6 | 13 | 66/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 73/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 82/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 84/0 |
| 10 | 10 | 94/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 102/0 |
| 12 | 11 | 113/0 |
| 13 | 6 | 119/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 126/1 |
| 15 | 16 | 142/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 151/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 158/1 |
| 18 | 14 | 172/1 |
| 19 | 23 | 195/1 |
| 20 | 13 | 208/1 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dane van Niekerk: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shabnim Ismail: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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