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Photo: Barry Dogger
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2026 · Women
25 Jun 2026 · T20
County Ground, Bristol · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 58%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 41%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Molkenboerrun out · Dane van Niekerk, Sinalo Jafta · Chloe Tryon 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dane van Niekerk, Sinalo Jafta | 41 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
| S Khuranacaught · Shabnim Ismail · Chloe Tryon 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shabnim Ismail · b Chloe Tryon | 36 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Sterre Kaliscaught · Sinalo Jafta · Shabnim Ismail 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Shabnim Ismail | 26 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 92.86 |
| Babette de Leedecaught · Annerie Dercksen · Ayabonga Khaka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Ayabonga Khaka | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 91.67 |
| Robine Rijkelbw · Chloe Tryon 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chloe Tryon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Frederique Overdijkbowled · Nadine de Klerk 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nadine de Klerk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Iris Zwillingbowled · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayabonga Khaka | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| MIW van den Raadnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Hannah Landheerbowled · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayabonga Khaka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Caroline de Langenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Shabnim Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 10.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-58 (S Khurana, 7.5) · 2-100 (Sterre Kalis, 14.4) · 3-110 (P Molkenboer, 17.3) · 4-112 (Robine Rijke, 18.0) · 5-117 (Frederique Overdijk, 18.4) · 6-119 (Babette de Leede, 19.2) · 7-120 (Iris Zwilling, 19.4) · 8-120 (Hannah Landheer, 19.5)
Recorded target: 209 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 32/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 14 | 50/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 54/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 59/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 63/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 70/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 75/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 80/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 87/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 97/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 106/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 110/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 112/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 118/5 |
| 20 | 2 | 120/8 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dane van Niekerk: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shabnim Ismail: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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