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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 36%; England batted first.
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
England Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
Pakistan Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Bantoncaught · Arafat Minhas · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arafat Minhas · b Shaheen Afridi | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Arafat Minhas10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Arafat Minhas | 105 | 111 | 10 | 2 | 94.59 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Saim Ayub · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Shaheen Afridi | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Harry Brookrun out · Saad Baig, Razaullah Mashwani · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Saad Baig, Razaullah Mashwani |
England's chances ranged from 3% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 14.29 |
| Jordan Coxcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Haris Rauf | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Sam Currancaught · Salman Ali Agha · Shaheen Afridi5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Shaheen Afridi | 42 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 80.77 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught and bowled · Razaullah Mashwani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Razaullah Mashwani | 13 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 81.25 |
|---|
| Liam Dawsoncaught · Shadab Khan · Razaullah Mashwani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadab Khan · b Razaullah Mashwani | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Arafat Minhas1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Arafat Minhas | 10 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonnot out 0 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 36* | 28 | 0 | 3 | 128.57 |
|---|
 Henry Crocombecaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Shaheen Afridi | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 46 | 4 | 5.31 | 1 | 0 |
| Razaullah Mashwani0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 4.75 | 1 | 1 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.88 | 2 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 4.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Arafat Minhas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Tom Banton, 0.5) · 2-11 (Joe Root, 2.5) · 3-19 (Harry Brook, 5.0) · 4-52 (Jordan Cox, 9.1) · 5-145 (Sam Curran, 26.4) · 6-175 (Will Jacks, 33.2) · 7-187 (Ben Duckett, 36.3) · 8-187 (Liam Dawson, 37.3) · 9-201 (Jamie Overton, 40.4) · 10-241 (Henry Crocombe, 46.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 30/3 |
| 7 | 8 | 38/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 46/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 52/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 56/4 |
| 11 | 11 | 67/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 71/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 78/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 83/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 85/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 86/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 89/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 95/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 98/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 102/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 108/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 113/4 |
| 23 | 12 | 125/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 128/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 135/4 |
| 26 | 8 | 143/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 145/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 150/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 151/5 |
| 30 | 8 | 159/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 165/5 |
| 32 | 6 | 171/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 174/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 177/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 180/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 186/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 187/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 189/8 |
| 39 | 3 | 192/8 |
| 40 | 7 | 199/8 |
| 41 | 6 | 205/9 |
| 42 | 13 | 218/9 |
| 43 | 3 | 221/9 |
| 44 | 4 | 225/9 |
| 45 | 12 | 237/9 |
| 46 | 3 | 240/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 241/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Henry Crocombe: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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