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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 36%; England batted first.
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
England Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
Pakistan Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-25
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Jamie Overton · Gus Atkinson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Gus Atkinson | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Jamie Overton · Henry Crocombe 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Henry Crocombe | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 50.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Gus Atkinson2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Saad Baigcaught · Will Jacks · Jamie Overton 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jamie Overton | 32 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 145.45 |
England's chances ranged from 3% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sam Curran · b Liam Dawson |
| 26 |
| 49 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 53.06 |
| Hassan Nawazcaught · Harry Brook · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Liam Dawson | 15 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhascaught · Joe Root · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Jamie Overton | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Shadab Khannot out13 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 113* | 96 | 13 | 5 | 117.71 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridicaught · Sam Curran · Jamie Overton1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Jamie Overton | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Razaullah Mashwanibowled · Will Jacks 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Will Jacks | 8 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Haris Raufnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 19 | 1 | 0 | 36.84 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 2 | 6.89 | 0 | 0 |
 Henry Crocombe0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.1 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 9.24 | 5 | 1 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 30 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Fakhar Zaman, 4.4) · 2-27 (Saim Ayub, 6.0) · 3-31 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 6.5) · 4-74 (Saad Baig, 12.0) · 5-102 (Hassan Nawaz, 22.4) · 6-103 (Arafat Minhas, 23.1) · 7-122 (Salman Ali Agha, 28.3) · 8-131 (Shaheen Afridi, 30.0) · 9-154 (Razaullah Mashwani, 33.5)
Recorded target: 242 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 31/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 40/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 41/3 |
| 10 | 11 | 52/3 |
| 11 | 13 | 65/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 74/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 76/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 79/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 83/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 87/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 89/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 92/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 96/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 98/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 99/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 103/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 106/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 108/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 110/6 |
| 27 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 28 | 7 | 121/6 |
| 29 | 1 | 122/7 |
| 30 | 9 | 131/8 |
| 31 | 2 | 133/8 |
| 32 | 17 | 150/8 |
| 33 | 2 | 152/8 |
| 34 | 2 | 154/9 |
| 35 | 0 | 154/9 |
| 36 | 6 | 160/9 |
| 37 | 5 | 165/9 |
| 38 | 11 | 176/9 |
| 39 | 11 | 187/9 |
| 40 | 6 | 193/9 |
| 41 | 7 | 200/9 |
| 42 | 7 | 207/9 |
| 43 | 3 | 210/9 |
| 44 | 5 | 215/9 |
| 45 | 7 | 222/9 |
| 46 | 2 | 224/9 |
| 47 | 15 | 239/9 |
| 48 | 4 | 243/9 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Henry Crocombe: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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