Gulf GiantsversusAbu Dhabi Knight Riders

10 Feb 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gulf Giants won by 3 runs

Gulf Giants20.0 overs166/3 Abu Dhabi Knight Riders20.0 overs163/9 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gulf Giants started on 55%; Gulf Giants batted first.

Gulf Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Abu Dhabi Knight Riders is the rest

Gulf Giants's chances ranged from 10% to 82% during the match (Abu Dhabi Knight Riders: 18% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: J Overton to DJ Willey, four by DJ Willey. Abu Dhabi Knight Riders up from 57% to 86%.
2nd inns 18.5: CJ Jordan to S Kalyan, S Kalyan out. Gulf Giants up from 36% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.6: B Muzarabani to LJ Evans, 1 run to LJ Evans. Gulf Giants up from 82% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.