Saudi ArabiaversusHong Kong

11 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 10 runs

Saudi Arabia20.0 overs168/6 Hong Kong19.3 overs158/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%Saudi Arabia52%Hong Kong

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Saudi Arabia (1,616 vs 1,568 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 1 and Hong Kong won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 45%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 28% to 99% during the match (Hong Kong: 1% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: Usman Najeeb to Reyansh Sharma, six by Reyansh Sharma. Hong Kong up from 53% to 72%.
2nd inns 17.3: Ishtiaq Ahmad to Aizaz Khan, Aizaz Khan out. Saudi Arabia up from 32% to 48%.
2nd inns 17.4: Ishtiaq Ahmad to Yasim Murtaza, Yasim Murtaza out. Saudi Arabia up from 48% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia168/6 Hong Kong158/10

Innings 2

Hong Kong

158/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeeshan Alicaught · Muhammad Atif · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Atif · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	8	8	0	0	100.00
Anshuman Rathcaught · Muhammad Saqib · Usman Najeeb 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Saqib · b Usman Najeeb	18	10	4	0	180.00
Babar Hayatcaught · Hisham Sheikh · Zain Ul Abidin 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Hisham Sheikh · b Zain Ul Abidin	18	18	2	1	100.00
Reyansh Sharmanot out 6 fours · 3 sixes	not out	71*	48	6	3	147.92
Shahid Wasifcaught · Imran Yousaf · Usman Najeeb 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imran Yousaf · b Usman Najeeb	21	22	2	0	95.45

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ishtiaq Ahmad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	4	6.25	2	0
Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0	0
Usman Najeeb0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	1	0
Zain Ul Abidin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	33	1	9.43	1	0
Hisham Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	30	0	7.50	0	1
Imran Yousaf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	10	21/0
3	7	28/1
4	4	32/2
5	3	35/2
6	10	45/2
7	16	61/2
8	7	68/2
9	4	72/3
10	6	78/3
11	11	89/3
12	9	98/3
13	6	104/3
14	8	112/3
15	7	119/4
16	13	132/4
17	13	145/4
18	4	149/7
19	3	152/8
20	6	158/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.