South AfricaversusUnited States of America

19 Jun 2024 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 18 runs

South Africa20.0 overs194/4 United States of America20.0 overs176/6 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%South Africa53%United States of America

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, United States of America rate stronger than South Africa (1,601 vs 1,579 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 43%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · United States of America is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

2.4: SN Netravalkar to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. United States of America up from 49% to 57%.
3.4: Jasdeep Singh to Q de Kock, six by Q de Kock. South Africa up from 50% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.1: K Rabada to Harmeet Singh, Harmeet Singh out. South Africa up from 89% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa194/4 United States of America176/6

Innings 2

United States of America

176/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

United States of America batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Steven Taylorcaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Kagiso Rabada 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Kagiso Rabada	24	14	4	1	171.43
Andries Gousnot out 5 fours · 5 sixes	not out	80*	47	5	5	170.21
Nitish Kumarcaught · Tristan Stubbs · Kagiso Rabada 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Kagiso Rabada	8	6	0	1	133.33
Aaron Jonescaught · Quinton de Kock · Keshav Maharaj 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Quinton de Kock · b Keshav Maharaj	0	5	0	0	0.00
Corey Andersonbowled · Anrich Nortje 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Anrich Nortje	12	12	0	1	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	2	0
Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0	0
Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	1	1
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0	0
Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	1	0
Tabraiz Shamsi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	1	12.50	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	13	18/0
3	10	28/0
4	6	34/1
5	17	51/1
6	2	53/2
7	4	57/3
8	3	60/3
9	5	65/3
10	8	73/4
11	3	76/4
12	11	87/5
13	12	99/5
14	4	103/5
15	19	122/5
16	13	135/5
17	10	145/5
18	22	167/5
19	2	169/6
20	7	176/6

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