OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: NZDF
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
30 Dec 2024 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 71%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Matt Henry · Jacob Duffy 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Matt Henry · b Jacob Duffy | 37 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 132.14 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Daryl Mitchell · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Mitchell Santner | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Kushal Janith Pererabowled · Jacob Duffy 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Duffy | 48 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 137.14 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Mark Chapman · Michael Bracewell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Michael Bracewell | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Mark Chapman · Mitchell Santner 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Mitchell Santner | 20 | 16 | 3 | 0 |
| 125.00 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Tim Robinson · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Robinson · b Matt Henry | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangabowled · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Duffy | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Mitchell Santner · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Binura Fernandocaught · Jacob Duffy · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Duffy · b Zakary Foulkes | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Matheesha Pathiranacaught · Mitchell Hay · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Matt Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nuwan Thusharanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 3.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 8.53 | 2 | 2 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-32 (Kusal Mendis, 4.1) · 2-71 (Pathum Nissanka, 9.1) · 3-97 (Kamindu Mendis, 11.4) · 4-127 (Kushal Janith Perera, 15.1) · 5-135 (Charith Asalanka, 16.4) · 6-136 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 17.1) · 7-136 (Mahesh Theekshana, 17.3) · 8-141 (Avishka Fernando, 18.3) · 9-141 (Matheesha Pathirana, 18.4) · 10-141 (Binura Fernando, 19.1)
Recorded target: 187 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 16 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 32/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 44/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 53/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 64/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 71/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 11 | 14 | 86/2 |
| 12 | 12 | 98/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 110/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 118/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 127/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 132/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 136/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 140/7 |
| 19 | 1 | 141/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 141/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
