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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Bangladesh tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
9 Jul 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 34%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettbowled · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ben Currannot out 9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 111* | 135 | 9 | 0 | 82.22 |
| Innocent Kaiacaught · Mehedi Hasan · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Taskin Ahmed | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Craig Ervinebowled · Nahid Rana1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahid Rana | 9 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 45.00 |
| Wesley Madheverecaught · Soumya Sarkar · Mehedi Hasan 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Mehedi Hasan | 15 | 30 | 2 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 10% to 74% during the match (Bangladesh: 26% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Mehedi Hasan4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Mehedi Hasan | 33 | 53 | 4 | 0 | 62.26 |
|---|
 Clive Madandecaught · Nurul Hasan · Rishad Hossain0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Brad Evansnot out 2 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 58* | 38 | 2 | 5 | 152.63 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 57 | 2 | 5.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Shariful Islam0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 4.80 | 1 | 1 |
 Mehedi Hasan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Brian Bennett, 0.5) · 2-8 (Innocent Kaia, 3.0) · 3-32 (Craig Ervine, 8.5) · 4-66 (Wesley Madhevere, 16.2) · 5-134 (Sikandar Raza, 32.1) · 6-148 (Clive Madande, 36.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 30/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 37/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 45/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 45/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 49/3 |
| 14 | 12 | 61/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 65/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 66/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 68/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 69/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 70/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 77/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 79/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 84/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 95/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 98/4 |
| 26 | 8 | 106/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 116/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 122/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 127/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 131/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 134/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 134/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 135/5 |
| 35 | 8 | 143/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 146/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 148/6 |
| 38 | 5 | 153/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 155/6 |
| 40 | 7 | 162/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 164/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 169/6 |
| 43 | 11 | 180/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 183/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 187/6 |
| 46 | 11 | 198/6 |
| 47 | 12 | 210/6 |
| 48 | 8 | 218/6 |
| 49 | 7 | 225/6 |
| 50 | 22 | 247/6 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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