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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
10 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 38%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Italy: 50% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Moscarun out · Noman Amjad · Noman Amjad 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Noman Amjad | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Syed Naqvicaught · Dawood Ahmadzai · Zaheer Zahiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dawood Ahmadzai · b Zaheer Zahiri | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Joe Burnslbw · Zaheer Zahiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zaheer Zahiri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AJ Moscacaught · L Canessane · Dawood Ahmadzai 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · L Canessane · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 26 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 81.25 |
| Harry Manentibowled · Usman Khan 12 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usman Khan | 65 | 51 | 12 | 0 | 127.45 |
| Marcus Campopiano |
| not out |
| 20* |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 111.11 |
| Gian-Piero Meadenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaheer Zahiri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Noman Amjad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamran Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Stanikzay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| G Mckeon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 5.14 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Syed Naqvi, 0.4) · 2-1 (Joe Burns, 0.5) · 3-2 (J Mosca, 1.3) · 4-92 (AJ Mosca, 14.1) · 5-102 (Harry Manenti, 16.0)
Recorded target: 117 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/3 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/3 |
| 4 | 13 | 18/3 |
| 5 | 8 | 26/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 37/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 40/3 |
| 8 | 13 | 53/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 61/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 65/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 71/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 13 | 9 | 85/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 92/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 97/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 102/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 107/5 |
| 18 | 7 | 114/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 118/5 |
Gareth Berg: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
