BrazilversusIsle of Man

1 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Brazil won by 105 runs

Brazil20.0 overs145/6 Isle of Man12.4 overs40/10 New Farnley Cricket Club, Leeds ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Brazil more likely to win

68%Brazil32%Isle of Man

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Brazil rate stronger than Isle of Man (1,433 vs 1,342 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Brazil won 1 and Isle of Man won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brazil started on 66%; Brazil batted first.

Brazil’s chance of winning (%) · Isle of Man is the rest

Brazil's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Isle of Man: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

5.6: C Perry to L Cardoso, L Cardoso out. Isle of Man up from 47% to 57%.
2nd inns 0.6: L Cardoso to L Barnett, L Barnett out. Brazil up from 67% to 76%.
2nd inns 1.5: NC Monteiro to C Crowe, C Crowe out. Brazil up from 83% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Brazil145/6 Isle of Man40/10

Innings 2

Isle of Man

40/1012.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Isle of Man batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Lucy Barnettcaught · LV Boas · Laura Cardoso 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LV Boas · b Laura Cardoso	2	6	0	0	33.33
L Moorecaught and bowled · NC Monteiro 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b NC Monteiro	1	3	0	0	33.33
C Henerybowled · NC Monteiro 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NC Monteiro	4	7	0	0	57.14
C Crowecaught and bowled · NC Monteiro 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b NC Monteiro	0	1	0	0	0.00
R Overmanbowled · NC Monteiro 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NC Monteiro	5	4	1	0	125.00
C Perry

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Laura Cardoso0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	1	2.50	1	0
NC Monteiro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.5	0	9	4	4.91	0	0
L Moises0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	2	0	1.00	0	0
CV Fernandes Torres0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	4	1
LV Boas0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	6	0
MLG Silva1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.5	1	1	2	0.55	1	0
Roberta Moretti Avery0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	6	9/3
3	2	11/3
4	3	14/5
5	1	15/5
6	8	23/6
7	1	24/6
8	7	31/7
9	3	34/7
10	3	37/7
11	0	37/8
12	2	39/9
13	1	40/10

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