**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPaarl Royals

11 Jan 2025 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 9 wickets

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs175/5 Paarl Royals18.4 overs176/1 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 52%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Paarl Royals: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.4: Mujeeb Ur Rahman to Z Crawley, Z Crawley out. Paarl Royals up from 34% to 43%.
4.6: Mujeeb Ur Rahman to J Hermann, J Hermann out. Paarl Royals up from 43% to 53%.
8.5: Dayyaan Galiem to TB Abell, TB Abell out. Paarl Royals up from 44% to 51%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.