CanterburyversusOtago

28 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Otago won by 6 wickets

Canterbury20.0 overs145/6 Otago14.5 overs146/4 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canterbury started on 43%; Canterbury batted first.

Canterbury’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Canterbury's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Otago: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: MJ Banks to IR James, IR James out. Canterbury up from 50% to 62%.
2nd inns 5.3: GES Sullivan to CG Blakely, CG Blakely out. Canterbury up from 42% to 54%.
2nd inns 5.6: GES Sullivan to L Harris, six by L Harris. Otago up from 53% to 61%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Otago chose to field
Player of the match: Laura Harris
match referees: SB O'Connor
reserve umpires: GG Pennell
tv umpires: PJ Pasco
umpires: JT Blunt, SB Haig

Match history & source

On 28 Dec 2025, Canterbury played Otago at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Otago won by 6 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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