South East StarsversusCentral Sparks

9 Jun 2024 · T20

St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Sparks won by 3 wickets

South East Stars20.0 overs122/8 Central Sparks19.2 overs123/7 St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South East Stars started on 57%; South East Stars batted first.

South East Stars’s chance of winning (%) · Central Sparks is the rest

South East Stars's chances ranged from 4% to 68% during the match (Central Sparks: 33% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.5: K Moore to KL George, KL George out. South East Stars up from 49% to 68%.
2nd inns 17.6: NE Farrant to EL Arlott, four by EL Arlott. Central Sparks up from 78% to 96%.
2nd inns 19.1: NE Farrant to EL Arlott, four by EL Arlott. Central Sparks up from 51% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: South East Stars chose to bat
match referees: PM Such
umpires: JC Tredwell, J Jarvis

Match history & source

On 9 Jun 2024, South East Stars played Central Sparks at St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury. Recorded result: Central Sparks won by 3 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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