South KoreaversusPhilippines

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

South Korea won by 39 runs

South Korea20.0 overs185/5 Philippines19.1 overs146/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

20%South Korea80%Philippines

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than South Korea (1,411 vs 1,273 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 5 and South Korea won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Korea started on 17%; South Korea batted first.

South Korea’s chance of winning (%) · Philippines is the rest

South Korea's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Philippines: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: S Maduranga to ASF Sirah, ASF Sirah out. South Korea up from 54% to 65%.
2nd inns 2.3: DVD Madampage to AS Samra, AS Samra out. South Korea up from 69% to 79%.
2nd inns 8.2: Basharat Hussain to G Chohan, G Chohan out. South Korea up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Korea185/5 Philippines146/10

Innings 2

Philippines

146/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
AS Samracaught · K Babu · Daham Madampage 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · K Babu · b Daham Madampage	14	9	1	1	155.56
ASF Sirahcaught · K Babu · Sameera Maduranga 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · K Babu · b Sameera Maduranga	7	4	0	1	175.00
M Podoskycaught · Balage Dilruksha · Bilal Ahmad Mir 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Balage Dilruksha · b Bilal Ahmad Mir	16	18	0	1	88.89
G Chohancaught · Daham Madampage · Basharat Hussain 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Daham Madampage · b Basharat Hussain	19	20	2	0	95.00
N Tannercaught · Kim Daeyeon · Bilal Ahmad Mir 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kim Daeyeon · b Bilal Ahmad Mir	8	8	1	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Daham Madampage0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	2	8.00	3
Sameera Maduranga0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	23	3	7.26	2
Bilal Ahmad Mir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	3	5.50	0
Basharat Hussain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Kuldeep Gurjar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	2
K Babu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	1	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	8	22/1
3	7	29/2
4	7	36/2
5	8	44/2
6	3	47/2
7	8	55/2
8	6	61/2
9	6	67/3
10	4	71/5
11	7	78/5
12	5	83/5
13	9	92/6
14	4	96/6
15	6	102/6
16	23	125/6
17	8	133/7
18	10	143/8
19	3	146/9
20	0	146/10

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