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Photo: Adityamadhav83
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
12 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 24%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalcaught · Ellyse Perry · Annabel Sutherland 10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ellyse Perry · b Annabel Sutherland | 75 | 96 | 10 | 1 | 78.13 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Sophie Molineux9 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Sophie Molineux | 80 | 66 | 9 | 3 | 121.21 |
| Harleen Deolcaught · Annabel Sutherland · Sophie Molineux 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Sophie Molineux | 38 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 90.48 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Sophie Molineux · Megan Schutt3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sophie Molineux · b Megan Schutt | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 129.41 |
India's chances ranged from 5% to 72% during the match (Australia: 28% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland5 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland |
| 33 |
| 21 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 157.14 |
 Richa Ghoshcaught · G Wareham · Annabel Sutherland3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · G Wareham · b Annabel Sutherland | 32 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 145.45 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurcaught · Sophie Molineux · Ashleigh Gardner 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sophie Molineux · b Ashleigh Gardner | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Beth Mooney · Sophie Molineux0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Sophie Molineux | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Sneh Rananot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudcaught · G Wareham · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · G Wareham · b Annabel Sutherland | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Shree Charanibowled · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kim Garth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Megan Schutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.1 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.71 | 1 | 0 |
 Sophie Molineux1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 75 | 3 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 40 | 5 | 4.07 | 4 | 0 |
 Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.5 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 8.90 | 4 | 0 |
 Alana King0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 8.17 | 2 | 0 |
1-155 (Smriti Mandhana, 24.3) · 2-192 (Pratika Rawal, 30.1) · 3-234 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 36.3) · 4-240 (Harleen Deol, 37.2) · 5-294 (Richa Ghosh, 43.0) · 6-309 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 44.5) · 7-320 (Deepti Sharma, 46.4) · 8-327 (Amanjot Kaur, 47.3) · 9-330 (Kranti Goud, 48.3) · 10-330 (Shree Charani, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 16 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 52/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 58/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 60/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 61/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 65/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 71/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 73/0 |
| 16 | 9 | 82/0 |
| 17 | 8 | 90/0 |
| 18 | 4 | 94/0 |
| 19 | 11 | 105/0 |
| 20 | 2 | 107/0 |
| 21 | 11 | 118/0 |
| 22 | 10 | 128/0 |
| 23 | 9 | 137/0 |
| 24 | 16 | 153/0 |
| 25 | 3 | 156/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 160/1 |
| 27 | 11 | 171/1 |
| 28 | 6 | 177/1 |
| 29 | 6 | 183/1 |
| 30 | 9 | 192/1 |
| 31 | 5 | 197/2 |
| 32 | 11 | 208/2 |
| 33 | 2 | 210/2 |
| 34 | 8 | 218/2 |
| 35 | 10 | 228/2 |
| 36 | 5 | 233/2 |
| 37 | 7 | 240/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 240/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 250/4 |
| 40 | 11 | 261/4 |
| 41 | 15 | 276/4 |
| 42 | 11 | 287/4 |
| 43 | 7 | 294/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 302/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 310/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 315/6 |
| 47 | 6 | 321/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 329/8 |
| 49 | 1 | 330/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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