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Pearl of Africa T20I Series · 2025 · Men
21 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 17%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulaimon Runsewebowled · Akif Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akif Raja | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| S Chilemanyabowled · Haider Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haider Ali | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
| AE Iseselebowled · Akif Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akif Raja | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Isaac Danladicaught · Waseem Muhammad · Zuhaib Zubair 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Zuhaib Zubair | 17 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 62.96 |
| Sylvester Okpelbw · Zuhaib Zubair 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zuhaib Zubair | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Vincent Adewoye |
| bowled · b Haider Ali |
| 9 |
| 10 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 90.00 |
| Mohameed Taiwobowled · Zuhaib Zubair 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zuhaib Zubair | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Isaac Okpecaught · Alishan Sharafu · Zuhaib Zubair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Zuhaib Zubair | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| P Usenicaught · Ethan Carl D'Souza · Zuhaib Zubair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ethan Carl D'Souza · b Zuhaib Zubair | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Peter Ahonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| AA Jimohrun out · Haider Ali, Zuhaib Zubair · Zuhaib Zubair 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Haider Ali, Zuhaib Zubair | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akif Raja0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Haider Ali1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Saghir Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zuhaib Zubair0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 21 | 5 | 6.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Muhammad Zohaib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Sulaimon Runsewe, 0.1) · 2-2 (AE Isesele, 1.0) · 3-29 (S Chilemanya, 5.0) · 4-36 (Sylvester Okpe, 7.3) · 5-46 (Isaac Danladi, 9.4) · 6-46 (Mohameed Taiwo, 10.0) · 7-46 (Vincent Adewoye, 10.4) · 8-46 (Isaac Okpe, 11.1) · 9-54 (P Useni, 11.5) · 10-58 (AA Jimoh, 13.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 12 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 29/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 36/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 37/4 |
| 10 | 9 | 46/6 |
| 11 | 0 | 46/7 |
| 12 | 8 | 54/9 |
| 13 | 1 | 55/9 |
| 14 | 3 | 58/10 |
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
