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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
19 Sept 2026 · T20
Old Trafford · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 4%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 7% during the match (England: 94% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Harry Brook · Will Jacks 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Will Jacks | 36 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 150.00 |
| Lahiru Udaracaught · Jos Buttler · Sonny Baker 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Sonny Baker | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 142.86 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Jamie Overton · Will Jacks 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Will Jacks | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Charith Asalankarun out · Will Jacks, Adil Rashid · Will Jacks 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Will Jacks, Adil Rashid | 16 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 114.29 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Will Jacks · Jofra Archer 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jofra Archer | 35 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 125.00 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Jos Buttler · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Liam Dawson | 12 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 92.31 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangahit wicket · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Jofra Archer | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Tharindu Ratnayakebowled · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jamie Overton | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingarun out · Liam Dawson · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Liam Dawson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Dilshan Madushankacaught · Harry Brook · Sonny Baker 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Sonny Baker | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nuwan Thusharanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Baker0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.43 | 1 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Lahiru Udara, 2.1) · 2-39 (Kamil Mishara, 4.5) · 3-52 (Pathum Nissanka, 6.4) · 4-83 (Charith Asalanka, 10.3) · 5-107 (Dasun Shanaka, 14.0) · 6-114 (Kamindu Mendis, 15.1) · 7-119 (Tharindu Ratnayake, 16.5) · 8-120 (Eshan Malinga, 17.2) · 9-124 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 17.5) · 10-124 (Dilshan Madushanka, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 15 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 47/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 53/3 |
| 8 | 11 | 64/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 71/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 86/4 |
| 12 | 10 | 96/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 99/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 107/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 114/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 117/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 119/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 124/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 124/10 |
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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