Desert VipersversusMI Emirates

9 Dec 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Desert Vipers won by 1 runs

Desert Vipers20.0 overs159/4 MI Emirates20.0 overs158/9 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Desert Vipers started on 49%; Desert Vipers batted first.

Desert Vipers’s chance of winning (%) · MI Emirates is the rest

Desert Vipers's chances ranged from 7% to 96% during the match (MI Emirates: 4% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.4: DA Payne to KA Pollard, KA Pollard out. Desert Vipers up from 48% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.5: Khuzaima Tanveer to Rashid Khan, four by Rashid Khan. MI Emirates up from 26% to 64%.
2nd inns 19.6: Khuzaima Tanveer to Rashid Khan, AM Ghazanfar out. Desert Vipers up from 36% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.