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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
12 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Panama more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Panama started on 62%; Panama batted first.
Panama's chances ranged from 3% to 84% during the match (Brazil: 16% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YI Kachhaliabowled · Kawsar Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kawsar Khan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Breeze Ahirbowled · Kawsar Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kawsar Khan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Irfan Hafejeecaught · L Maximo · Yasar Haroon 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L Maximo · b Yasar Haroon | 33 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 86.84 |
| Khandubhai Ahirbowled · Kawsar Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kawsar Khan | 22 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 73.33 |
| A Natubhai Ahircaught and bowled · Yasar Haroon 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Yasar Haroon | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
| Yusuf Ebrahim |
| bowled · b Yasar Haroon |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| RDB Ahirstumped · L Maximo · Yasar Haroon 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · L Maximo · b Yasar Haroon | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Mahmud Jasatbowled · Yasar Haroon 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Yasar Haroon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| AM Patelbowled · Kawsar Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kawsar Khan | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| DK Dahyabhai Ahirnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sanjay Kumar Ahirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawsar Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 4 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| LH Rodrigues0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 4 | 0 |
| IC Simao0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| R Avery0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Yasar Haroon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| G Oliveira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (YI Kachhalia, 0.2) · 2-21 (Breeze Ahir, 2.5) · 3-76 (Khandubhai Ahir, 12.2) · 4-84 (Irfan Hafejee, 13.4) · 5-96 (Yusuf Ebrahim, 15.3) · 6-97 (A Natubhai Ahir, 15.5) · 7-97 (Mahmud Jasat, 16.0) · 8-103 (RDB Ahir, 17.3) · 9-114 (AM Patel, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 9 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 27/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 37/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 40/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 47/2 |
| 10 | 13 | 60/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 70/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 89/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 94/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 97/7 |
| 17 | 4 | 101/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 105/8 |
| 19 | 7 | 112/8 |
| 20 | 10 | 122/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.