Southern VipersversusCentral Sparks

16 Jun 2024 · T20

New Road, Worcester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Sparks won by 5 wickets

Southern Vipers17.5 overs98/10 Central Sparks14.5 overs99/5 New Road, Worcester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Southern Vipers started on 53%; Southern Vipers batted first.

Southern Vipers’s chance of winning (%) · Central Sparks is the rest

Southern Vipers's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Central Sparks: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: KL George to CR Knott, CR Knott out. Central Sparks up from 46% to 56%.
6.3: GK Davis to GL Adams, GL Adams out. Central Sparks up from 49% to 60%.
7.4: B Ellis to FG Kemp, FG Kemp out. Central Sparks up from 57% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.